Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Warmer Weather on the Way

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Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Sun's Weather Cycle May Have Second Peak This Year

The sun is surprisingly quiet at the moment, but that may be because our star is gearing up for the second phase of a one-two wallop in its 11-year activity cycle, some scientists say.

The sun has slumped to its present lull from a very fiery 2011, seeming to contradict a widely predicted 2013 peak in solar flares, sunspots and other activity for the current Solar Cycle 24. But the forecasts may be right after all, said solar physicist Dean Pesnell, of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

'This is solar maximum,' Pesnell, project scientist for NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory spacecraft, said in a statement. 'But it looks different from what we expected because it is double-peaked.'



Though the sun's activity cycle is often regarded as a smooth bell curve, proceeding from low to high and then back down to low again, twin peaks are apparently not too uncommon. The last two solar maxima - which occurred in 1989 and 2001 - were doubled-peaked, exhibiting mini-cycles that lasted about two years, Pesnell added.

So the 2011 surge may just have been part one of Solar Cycle 24's fireworks display.

'I am comfortable in saying that another peak will happen in 2013 and possibly last into 2014,' Pesnell said.

If a second peak does occur in 2013, activity in the sun's southern half might be the main driver. Our star's northern and southern hemispheres sometimes peak at different times, researchers said, and the south has been significantly quieter than the north thus far in Solar Cycle 24.

Pesnell is a member of the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a group of solar physicists who gathered in 2006 and 2008 to forecast the next solar maximum. Weaving together a number of lines of evidence, including Solar Cycle 24's very deep minimum five or so years ago, the group made the following prediction:

'The panel has decided that the next solar cycle (Cycle 24) will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May 2013.'

A peak in just two months doesn't seem likely now, given how quiet the sun has been recently, researchers said.

'We may be seeing what happens when you predict a single amplitude and the sun responds with a double peak,' Pesnell said.

Follow SPACE.com senior writer Mike Wall on Twitter @michaeldwall or SPACE.com @Spacedotcom. We're also on Facebook and Google+. This article was first published on SPACE.com.



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Obama's EPA, DOE Nominations Bring Political and Industry Experience



According to an article from the Wall Street Journal, President Barack Obama has nominated new heads of both the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Energy (DOE), two agencies that could spearhead action regarding climate change and carbon emissions during the president's second term. Obama has picked Gina McCarthy to be the EPA's new administrator and Ernest Moniz as the new DOE secretary. Both have strong backgrounds in public administration and hail from the state of Massachusetts.

Here are some facts and details about each candidate's background and responses regarding President Obama's choices:

Gina McCarthy

Background and Experience:

Selected to replace Lisa Jackson as head of the EPA, McCarthy, 58, is already familiar with the agency's operations since she currently serves as the assistant administrator for the Office of Air and Radiation, noted Reuters. Additionally, she served under the state administrations former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and former Gov. Jodi Rell of Connecticut, both Republicans. While serving in both states, McCarthy often worked with industries and became an expert in air policies.

Political and Industry Response:

Her nomination has already brought some praise. American Chemistry Council President Cal Dooley said he and members of his group 'have a lot of confidence in McCarthy's leadership ability.' The Washington Post noted that Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., also emphasized her experience as making her the 'right person for the job.' However, despite her affiliation with right-wing administrations, coal companies have expressed reservations and it is expected that Republican senators, including Sen. David Vittner, R-La., will grill her during the appointment approval process.



Ernest Moniz



Background and Experience:

If approved by the Senate, Moniz will replace Steven Chu at the DOE. According to Bloomberg Businessweek, Moniz, 68, is currently an engineering and physics scientist and researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Between 1997 and 2001, he was an undersecretary at the DOE and also served as a science adviser to President Bill Clinton for two years. His own research focuses on biofuel and nuclear fission technology.

Political and Industry Response:

USA Today reports that Moniz is a proponent of nuclear energy and natural gas, which has immediately awarded him favor with these two industries. His position as director of MIT's Energy Initiative, which is supported by BP, Royal Dutch Shell, and Chevron, also positively links him to the private energy sector. Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, said Moniz's nomination is a move in the right direction for national security and economic development. However, environmental groups, specifically the Sierra Club, expressed concern that Moniz would focus too heavily on nuclear energy and natural gas production, at a time when fracking and nuclear waste are of widespread criticism, and not enough on moving towards renewable energy sources.



Rachel Bogart provides an in-depth look at current environmental issues and local Chicago news stories. Currently pursuing her master's degree in environmental science, she applies her knowledge and passion to both topics to garner further public awareness.



US scientists report big jump in heat-trapping CO2

WASHINGTON (AP) - New federal figures show the amount of heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the air jumped dramatically in 2012, making it very unlikely that global warming can be limited to another 2 degrees. Many governments set a 2-degree increase as the upper limit.

Scientists say the rise in CO2 reflects the global economy revving up and burning more fossil fuels, especially in China.

U.S. government scientists report that carbon dioxide levels jumped by 2.67 parts per million for a total of just under 395 parts per million compared to 2011.

That's the second highest rise in carbon emissions since records started being kept in 1959. Only 1998 had a bigger increase.

Scientists say hopes of limiting warming to 2 degrees are fading away to almost nothing.

Republicans Take Aim at Obama's EPA Nominee

President Obama's nomination Monday of Gina McCarthy to lead the Environmental Protection Agency sets up the next high-profile clash between the White House and congressional Republicans over the incendiary issue of climate change.

Obama has tapped McCarthy, currently the assistant administrator for the Office of Air and Radiation at EPA, as administrator at a time when he looks to expand the agency's reach. During the president's second term, EPA is expected to focus more on regulating fossil-fuel industries that are the biggest contributors to climate change but are also among the mainstays of the nation's economy.

Most energy analysts and Senate-watchers expect McCarthy to be confirmed, but her nomination does set the stage for high drama over one of the most pressing environmental problems on the planet.

In his State of the Union address, Obama made clear that as he pursues his climate-change agenda, he is prepared to bypass Congress and use EPA's authorities to move ahead with aggressive regulations on producers of greenhouse gases. The president called on Congress to act on climate change, and Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairwoman Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., has introduced legislation, but the bill has almost no chance of success in the gridlocked Congress. As a result, Obama plans to hand the ball for his climate-change agenda to EPA.

Her confirmation hearing before the Environment and Public Works panel, which has yet to be scheduled, will pit McCarthy-an environmental regulator of nearly 30 years with a tough-talking style, a thick Boston accent, and a steely blue gaze-against a trio of conservative energy-state Republicans who question the science of climate change and have launched a public crusade against EPA broadly and McCarthy specifically.

An expected grilling of McCarthy by ranking member David Vitter, R-La.-a conservative Southern firebrand from a major oil-drilling state-will be like "a showdown between Hillary [Rodham] Clinton and Rand Paul," said one former EPA official.

Vitter has already launched a public campaign of sorts against the nominee. In 2011, he wrote a letter to EPA requesting the scientific methods used in the agency's regulatory agenda. Over the past six weeks, as rumors swirled that McCarthy was the likely EPA nominee, Vitter has sent out a steady barrage of letters and press releases demanding answers from McCarthy.

"The EPA is in desperate need of a leader who will stop ignoring congressional information requests, hiding e-mails and more from the public, and relying on flawed science," Vitter said on Monday. "McCarthy has been directly involved in much of that, but I hope she can reverse those practices with [outgoing EPA Administrator] Lisa Jackson's departure. I look forward to hearing answers from her on a number of key issues."

The panel's second-ranking Republican, Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma, has long been known as Washington's most prominent climate-science skeptic. Last year, Inhofe wrote a book called The Greatest Hoax, reiterating his long-standing claim that the theory of human-caused climate change is a falsehood cooked up by scientists. Inhofe has clashed with the Obama administration on climate change since Day One, and there's little doubt he'll seize the opportunity to push back hard at McCarthy.

Another top Republican on the panel, Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, comes from a coal state whose economy would likely be hit hard by new climate regulations. He already has a history of conflict with McCarthy.

In 2009, Barrasso initially blocked McCarthy's nomination to her current post, in part because of concerns about her approach to regulating greenhouse gases. He eventually lifted his hold. But he said on Monday, "I have serious concerns about how the current EPA operates. We can't afford another administrator who bypasses Congress and rolls out more red tape that discourages job creation. I'm going to take a very close look at Ms. McCarthy's experience at the EPA and her vision for the agency."

So far, no Republicans have threatened to block McCarthy's nomination outright. And she will have an opportunity to make her case with them in one-on-one meetings ahead of the confirmation hearing. Those meetings may give McCarthy a chance to deploy her well-known sense of humor to help smooth the way ahead of the vote on her nomination.

Meanwhile, environmental groups have launched a website, standwithgina.com, to build support for the nominee ahead of the hearing.

Boxer said on Monday she intends to move forward with the nomination "as quickly as possible."

Energy nominee favors all-of the-above approach

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Barack Obama's choice to lead the Energy Department advocates an all-of-the-above approach to energy and favors natural gas as a 'bridge fuel' to reduce emissions that contribute to global warming.

Ernest Moniz, a physics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, leads the MIT Energy Initiative, a research group that gets funding from BP, Chevron and other oil industry heavyweights for academic work aimed at reducing greenhouse gases blamed for global warming. A former energy undersecretary, Moniz has advised Obama on numerous energy topics, including how to handle the country's nuclear waste and the natural gas produced by the controversial technique of hydraulic fracturing.

'Ernie knows that we can produce more energy and grow our economy while still taking care of our air, our water and our climate,' Obama said Monday as he introduced Moniz and two other candidates for top-level positions.

Gina McCarthy, an assistant EPA administrator, was chosen to lead the Environmental Protection Agency. A 25-year veteran of environmental policy and politics, McCarthy has worked for Republicans and Democrats, including Obama's presidential rival, Mitt Romney, who tapped her to help draft state plans for curbing the pollution linked to global warming when he was governor of Massachusetts.

Sylvia Mathews Burwell was nominated to direct the White House Office of Management and Budget. Burwell held several posts during the Clinton administration, including deputy director of the OMB. She currently heads the Wal-Mart Foundation, the philanthropic arm of the retail giant, and previously served as president of the Gates Foundation's Global Development Program.

Moniz, 68, whose specialty is nuclear physics, has drawn fire from some environmental groups for his views on natural gas, especially that produced from shale, a gas-rich rock formation thousands of feet underground. The gas is freed through a process called hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, in which large volumes of water, plus sand and chemicals, are injected to break the rock apart. Advances in technology have unlocked billions of dollars of gas reserves, leading to a boom in production, jobs and profits, as well as concerns about pollution and public health.

At a forum last year at the University of Texas, Moniz said natural gas, which emits fewer greenhouse gases than oil or coal, is likely to be part of the nation's energy solution for years to come.

As a nation, the U.S. 'should take advantage of the time to innovate and bring down the cost of renewables,' Moniz said. 'The worst thing would be to get time and not use it.'

Those and other comments have made some environmental groups wary of Moniz, who also has supported development of nuclear power, along with renewable energy sources such as wind and solar.

'Ernest Moniz has a history of supporting dirty and dangerous energy sources like gas and nuclear power with polluting partners including BP, Shell, Chevron and Saudi Aramco,' said Courtney Abrams of the group Environment America. 'Given this concerning track record, we hope Dr. Moniz will focus on clean, renewable ways to get our energy that don't put our families and our environment in harm's way.'

Fred Krupp, president of the Environmental Defense Fund, said Moniz 'has recognized that there are environmental issues - real issues, serious issues - with natural gas.'

When Moniz says issues with natural gas are manageable, 'he quickly adds that just because they are manageable doesn't mean they are managed,' Krupp said. 'To me that's actually a very full understanding that he brings to this role.'

As energy secretary, Moniz would not have direct oversight over fracking, which is primarily left to state and local governments. Even so, the Energy Department has a huge research budget, and current Energy Secretary Steven Chu has been criticized for focusing too much on renewables such as wind and solar and not enough on natural gas, which has emerged in recent years as an energy powerhouse that has threatened the dominance of coal, the leading source of electricity in the U.S.

Like Chu, Moniz is an academic with a doctorate in physics. Unlike Chu, who led an Energy Department lab before becoming energy secretary, Moniz has extensive political experience, having served in the Clinton administration as undersecretary of energy and as a White House science adviser.

'The really good thing about Ernie is he's been there, so he can hit the ground running,' said Carol Browner, a former Obama energy adviser who worked with Moniz when she headed the Environmental Protection Agency under President Bill Clinton.

John Deutch, an MIT colleague and former CIA director, called Moniz a 'brilliant choice' to lead the Energy Department.

'I think that President Obama has chosen the most qualified individual in the United States for the position of secretary of energy,' said Deutch, who led a review of shale-gas drilling for the Energy Department in Obama's first term.

Thomas Pyle, president of the Institute for Energy Research, a conservative advocacy group, set his sights a little lower.

If confirmed, Moniz will 'inherit an agency with a tarnished record for picking losers and not winners in the energy market,' Pyle said. 'It is our hope that Dr. Moniz will avoid opportunities to repeat the well-documented mistakes of his predecessor and refuse the temptation to let political pressure trump sound science and economics.'

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Associated Press writer Dina Cappiello contributed to this report.

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Follow Matthew Daly on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MatthewDalyWDC

Monday, March 4, 2013

Obama rounds out Cabinet with EPA, Energy nominees

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama announced his nominees to lead a new U.S. push to tackle climate change on Monday, choosing an air quality expert to run the Environmental Protection Agency and a nuclear physicist to head the Department of Energy.

In a widely expected move, Obama selected agency veteran Gina McCarthy to replace Lisa Jackson as EPA administrator and scientist Ernest Moniz from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to take over from Steven Chu as Energy secretary.

Obama also announced his choice to lead the White House budget office - Sylvia Mathews Burwell, president of the Walmart Foundation, a charitable group with ties to giant retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

White House economic adviser Brian Deese is a leading candidate to become Burwell's deputy director, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

McCarthy and Moniz round out the team Obama hopes will carry out his second term energy agenda. They join Sally Jewell, nominated last month to run the Interior Department.

The trio will be at the forefront of divisive issues surrounding the extent of U.S. natural gas exports and a possible move into crude oil exports, hydraulic fracturing and climate change.

The president, whose effort to establish a cap-and-trade system for carbon emissions failed in his first term, prominently raised the issue of global warming in his Inaugural and State of the Union addresses earlier this year.

He urged Congress to embrace a market-based mechanism to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or face executive action from his administration to achieve the same goal.

McCarthy, now the assistant administrator for the EPA Office of Air and Radiation, has worked for Democrats and Republicans in the past, including Obama's 2012 presidential opponent, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

'Gina has focused on practical, cost-effective ways to keep our air clean and our economy growing,' Obama said at the White House, ribbing McCarthy for her Boston accent.

'She's earned a reputation as a straight shooter. She welcomes different points of views.'

Environmentalists and congressional Democrats largely welcomed her nomination, but she is likely to face a grilling from Republicans, who have accused her of promoting policies that cost jobs.

Moniz, meanwhile, would become the go-to person for Obama's goal of reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil and establishing America as a leader in clean energy technology.

A former undersecretary of energy during the Clinton administration, Moniz is now director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Energy Initiative, a research group that gets funding from industry heavyweights including BP, Chevron, and Saudi Aramco for academic work on projects aimed at reducing greenhouse gases.

'Ernie knows that we can produce more energy and grow our economy while still taking care of our air, our water and our climate,' Obama said.

Moniz's selection was greeted with less enthusiasm from the environmental community.

'Ernest Moniz ... has a history of supporting dirty and dangerous energy sources like gas and nuclear power with polluting partners including BP, Shell, Chevron and Saudi Aramco,' said clean energy advocate Courtney Abrams of Environment America.

'We are concerned about the Department of Energy's priorities given this track record and hope Moniz will focus on clean, renewable ways to get our energy that don't put our families and our environment in harm's way.'

NATURAL GAS, NUCLEAR

Elgie Holstein, chief of staff at the Energy Department when Moniz was hired during the Clinton administration, dismissed complaints that he is too supportive of natural gas.

'I think the view that he is some sort of fracking fiend is entirely misplaced. He has a very balanced view of that,' said Holstein, who is now with the Environmental Defense Fund.

One of the first decisions Moniz will face at the helm of the Energy Department is whether to allow exports of natural gas to more than the current list of countries.

A 2011 MIT study on the future of natural gas, chaired by Moniz, said the United States should not 'erect barriers to natural gas imports or exports.'

Many manufacturers and some lawmakers are concerned that more exports will mean higher natural gas prices for consumers and companies. Moniz is likely to be questioned about the issue during his Senate confirmation hearing.

Energy analysts cautioned against placing too much weight on Moniz' involvement in the study advocating against restrictions on exports.

'Moniz may contribute, but we don't think he alone will decisively shift top-level debate within the White House policy ranks,' Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners said in a research note regarding gas exports.

Moniz may be able to make a bigger imprint on nuclear power. His background as a nuclear physicist and work as a member of the administration's commission on nuclear waste has sparked some hopes that he may be able to bolster support for nuclear power at the department.

'The real question mark is the nuclear side because of his expertise, but I think it's a real opportunity,' said Bruce Bullock, director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University in Texas.

BUDGET DIRECTOR

The choice of Burwell to become director of the White House budget office had also been widely expected.

All three nominations require confirmation by the Senate.

Obama appears to have delayed some Cabinet appointments, whose names were well known for weeks, until after the March 1 deadline for massive spending cuts known as 'sequestration.'

Obama and congressional leaders failed to reach an agreement to delay those cuts on Friday, threatening other policy priorities in the president's second term agenda.

Four Cabinet positions remain to be filled: Commerce, Transportation, Labor and the U.S. Trade Representative.

At OMB, Burwell will be instrumental in steering the budget process that will encapsulate Obama's stated goal of reducing the U.S. deficit while investing in areas such as education and clean energy technology that are necessary for U.S. competitiveness.

Raised in West Virginia and educated at Harvard and Oxford, Burwell, 47, returns to an agency where she was once deputy director - one of a number of roles she had in the Clinton administration, including a stint as chief of staff to Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin.

As Burwell's deputy, Deese would draw on his experience coordinating policy on taxes, financial regulation, clean energy and manufacturing.

(Additional reporting by Mark Felsenthal, Ayesha Rascoe and Valerie Volcovici; Editing by Jackie Frank and Christopher Wilson)