(Reuters) - The U.S. national weather forecaster still expects the much-feared El Niño phenomenon to remain weak into the Northern Hemisphere winter, it said on Thursday.
It is still unclear whether a fully fledged El Niño that can wreak havoc on global weather will emerge, although the chances have reduced as its development has slowed in recent months, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said on Thursday in its monthly assessment.
The majority of forecasting models suggest that conditions will range between neutral to weak, with the possibility of it strengthening during the next few months, it said.
That is a similar appraisal to the CPC's outlook last month and signals reduced risk of a major drought in Asia, which produces some of the world's major food staples, such as grains and sugar cane.
Based on the CPC's outlook, this year could be on par with previous less-disruptive episodes in 2004-05 and 2006-07 and far off a repeat of 2009 when drought damaged crops across Asia.
A strong El Niño, essentially a warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, can cause widespread drought in Australia, parts of Africa, Southeast Asia and India, and also bring rains to other parts of the globe.
(Reporting by Josephine Mason; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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