By Ange Aboa
SAN PEDRO (Reuters) - Ivory Coast is unlikely to harvest a bumper cocoa crop this year as dry and hot weather hampers the development of the upcoming mid-crop in the world's biggest producer, farmers and exporters said on Friday.
Output from the current October-to-March main crop was down around 6 percent by March 10 compared to the same period last season, according to exporters' port arrivals estimates. Traders had been expecting a large harvest from the mid-crop, which opens April 1 and runs through September, to help offset the deficit.
May cocoa future on ICE was down $13, or 0.6 percent, at $2,117 a tonne, after recovering from a nine-month low of $2,034 on March 7 largely on optimism for the West African light crop harvest.
But many of the flowers and small pods that will become the pods harvested in the early stages of mid-crop were killed by extremely hot and dry conditions during the dry season that is now ending, exporters said.
'People have been talking about 450,000 to 500,000 tonnes for the mid-crop, but I don't believe it, simply because we're not seeing it on the trees,' said the director of an Abidjan-based export firm.
'We should hit 350,000 or even 400,000, which is Ivory Coast's normal (mid-crop) production level, but I don't see it above that,' he said.
Though the last two seasons have seen harvests of 1.51 million and 1.47 million tonnes, Ivorian cocoa output over the past decade has averaged around 1.3 million tonnes, with around 350,000 tonnes coming from the mid-crop.
Other exporters and pod counters contacted by Reuters also projected output for the April-to-September mid-crop at around 350,000 tonnes if current weather conditions hold, with estimates rising above 400,000 with improved rainfall.
'I don't yet see the record season we were expecting for the mid-crop. The rains arrived late, and the heat killed lots of flowers and cherelles,' said Ben Sylla, a cocoa merchant based in the western town of Duekoue.
LATE FLOWERING
The marketing season for the mid-crop opens on April 1, but growers are predicting a late start to harvesting.
A Reuters reporter who visited the Ivory Coast's principal growing regions saw that crops had yet to attain the level of development typically seen at this stage in the season.
While trees on plantations in most regions were flowering and cherelles were visible on many trees, mid-sized pods were largely absent, an indication that the mid-crop peak will likely not be reached before late July or early August, a month later than normal.
Cocoa flowers require around 22 weeks to develop into ripe pods.
The main cocoa producing regions of Daloa, Vavoua, Bouafle and San Pedro, all exhibited an abundant setting of flowers and cherelles, according to the Reuters reporter. Total seasonal output in Daloa and Vavoua averages around 250,000 to 280,000 tonnes.
'We can't really talk much about the harvest yet,' said Adou Kouadio, who farms 4 hectares in Meagui, around 50 km (32 miles) north of San Pedro.
'We'll need to wait until May or June to see what pods we have on the trees to have a real idea. It's not yet clear. The flowers could still fall off if we don't get good rains,' he said.
The western region of Duekoue, with seasonal output averaging 250,000 tonnes, and the southwestern region of Soubre, which produces 300,000 to 320,000 tonnes, showed more advanced mid-crop development and some mid-sized pods were visible.
'There are some pods that we will harvest at the end of April, but not many, just a few,' said Augustin Koffie, who works five hectares of cocoa in Fengolo, about 5 km (3 miles) north of Duekoue.
'It will be in July and August that we will see more, because it's only now that the flowers and cherelles are coming out,' he said.
Exporters said a lack of plantation maintenance could also impact production, particularly on older plantations in the country's east where ageing trees are less resistant to harsh weather and disease.
Seasonal output from Abengourou and Aboisso, the two principal eastern growing regions, averages between 125,000 and 150,000 tonnes.
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