Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Climate change threatens California power supply: report

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - California's electricity sector is more vulnerable to climate change than previously thought, as higher temperatures will impede the state's ability to generate and transmit power while demand for air conditioning rises, a report said Tuesday.

The data is part of the latest report released by the California Natural Resources Agency and the California Energy Commission, which are trying to help state and local leaders prepare for life in the hotter, drier California of the future. (Report: http://r.reuters.com/zag79s)

Wildlife, agriculture and coastal communities are also at serious risk from climate change, the report said. Sea levels could rise by more than a foot by 2050, and more intense storms combined with less overall precipitation will present a host of challenges.

California is considered a national leader in setting policies to combat climate change, with a strong renewable electricity mandate in place and a carbon cap-and-trade program coming into force next year.

'We know that climate change will significantly affect the state's energy supply and demand,' said Robert B. Weisenmiller, chair of the California Energy Commission.

'This groundbreaking research gives us the data and analytical tools we need to better plan, forecast and prepare to meet the state's energy needs as we face climate challenges,' he said.

The warmer climate will decrease hydropower generation in the summer months when it is needed most, the report said. High-elevation hydropower plants, which supply about 75 percent of the state's hydropower, are especially at risk, since the small size of their reservoirs allows little flexibility to cope with reduced snowpack.

At the same time, higher temperatures alone will require the state to increase its electricity generating capacity 38 percent over current levels by 2100.

The report notes that renewable energy facilities, like wind and solar, are less threatened by climate change conditions, use less water, and produce none of the heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions that come from natural gas-fired plants.

California has set a goal of cutting its output of greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, the most ambitious target of any state.

WILDFIRES THREATEN TRANSMISSION LINES

The ability to move electricity from power plants to end users will also be threatened by climate change, since electrical transmission lines lose 7 to 8 percent of their transmitting capacity in high temperatures--just when demand for power rises.

Key transmission corridors are also vulnerable to more frequent and severe wildfires. The report said that the threat of wildfire to the transmission lines will increase by 40 percent.

Transmission lines with a high risk of wildfire interference include those that bring hydropower from the Pacific Northwest into California during peak demand periods as well as the lines bring power to the Los Angeles metropolitan area.

Those risks can be reduced by introducing more locally produced and distributed electricity, the report said.

HOTTER DAYS AHEAD FOR CALIFORNIA

Statewide average temperatures are expected to climb by 2.7 degrees above 2000 averages by 2050, according to climate scientists.

That will lead to an increase in mortality and health problems for at-risk populations, the report said.

The hotter climate will also mean that by the latter half of the century, dry water years are expected to increase by 8 percent in the Sacramento Valley and by 32 percent in the San Joaquin Valley, compared to the latter half of the 20th century.

The rise in sea level along California's coastline is also expected to accelerate, climbing 10 to 18 inches higher by 2050 and 31-55 inches higher by the end of this century. That creates the risk of saltwater intrusion into coastal groundwater supplies and into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.

'These studies show that climate change is being felt in California now and will have more severe impacts in the future unless we plan ahead,' said Susanne Moser, a Santa-Cruz based researcher who contributed to the assessment studies.

(Reporting by Rory Carroll. Editing by Jonathan Weber and Lisa Shumaker.)



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Climate change threatens California power supply-report

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - California's electricity sector is more vulnerable to climate change than previously thought, as higher temperatures will impede the state's ability to generate and transmit power while demand for air conditioning rises, a report said Tuesday.

The data is part of the latest report released by the California Natural Resources Agency and the California Energy Commission, which are trying to help state and local leaders prepare for life in the hotter, drier California of the future. (Report: http://r.reuters.com/zag79s)

Wildlife, agriculture and coastal communities are also at serious risk from climate change, the report said. Sea levels could rise by more than a foot by 2050, and more intense storms combined with less overall precipitation will present a host of challenges.

California is considered a national leader in setting policies to combat climate change, with a strong renewable electricity mandate in place and a carbon cap-and-trade program coming into force next year.

'We know that climate change will significantly affect the state's energy supply and demand,' said Robert B. Weisenmiller, chair of the California Energy Commission.

'This groundbreaking research gives us the data and analytical tools we need to better plan, forecast and prepare to meet the state's energy needs as we face climate challenges,' he said.

The warmer climate will decrease hydropower generation in the summer months when it is needed most, the report said. High-elevation hydropower plants, which supply about 75 percent of the state's hydropower, are especially at risk, since the small size of their reservoirs allows little flexibility to cope with reduced snowpack.

At the same time, higher temperatures alone will require the state to increase its electricity generating capacity 38 percent over current levels by 2100.

The report notes that renewable energy facilities, like wind and solar, are less threatened by climate change conditions, use less water, and produce none of the heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions that come from natural gas-fired plants.

California has set a goal of cutting its output of greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, the most ambitious target of any state.

WILDFIRES THREATEN TRANSMISSION LINES

The ability to move electricity from power plants to end users will also be threatened by climate change, since electrical transmission lines lose 7 to 8 percent of their transmitting capacity in high temperatures--just when demand for power rises.

Key transmission corridors are also vulnerable to more frequent and severe wildfires. The report said that the threat of wildfire to the transmission lines will increase by 40 percent.

Transmission lines with a high risk of wildfire interference include those that bring hydropower from the Pacific Northwest into California during peak demand periods as well as the lines bring power to the Los Angeles metropolitan area.

Those risks can be reduced by introducing more locally produced and distributed electricity, the report said.

HOTTER DAYS AHEAD FOR CALIFORNIA

Statewide average temperatures are expected to climb by 2.7 degrees above 2000 averages by 2050, according to climate scientists.

That will lead to an increase in mortality and health problems for at-risk populations, the report said.

The hotter climate will also mean that by the latter half of the century, dry water years are expected to increase by 8 percent in the Sacramento Valley and by 32 percent in the San Joaquin Valley, compared to the latter half of the 20th century.

The rise in sea level along California's coastline is also expected to accelerate, climbing 10 to 18 inches higher by 2050 and 31-55 inches higher by the end of this century. That creates the risk of saltwater intrusion into coastal groundwater supplies and into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.

'These studies show that climate change is being felt in California now and will have more severe impacts in the future unless we plan ahead,' said Susanne Moser, a Santa-Cruz based researcher who contributed to the assessment studies.

(Reporting by Rory Carroll. Editing by Jonathan Weber and Lisa Shumaker.)



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Native American Communities Suffer Most from Climate Change



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Storms knock out power to thousands in Michigan

ALLEGAN, Mich. (AP) - Consumers Energy says about 24,500 of its customers statewide are without electrical service following severe thunderstorms that moved across Michigan.

The subsidiary of CMS Energy Corp. says the west side of the state was hit the hardest. Nearly 9,000 homes and businesses remained blacked out in Allegan County on Tuesday. More than 4,500 remained without power in Newaygo County.

The utility says more than 500 employees and more than 120 contractors are working to restore power, and hope to have most service returned by day's end.

DTE Energy Co. says Tuesday it had no major outages to report.



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PSE&G 2nd-quarter profit falls on lower prices

NEWARK, N.J. (AP) - Warmer-than-usual winter weather and lower prices weighed on electrical utility and power producer Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. in its second quarter and its net income declined.

The company's earnings fell 35 percent to $211 million, or 42 cents per share, from $323 million, or 63 cents per share, in the prior-year period.

Operating earnings, which exclude one-time items, dropped to $215 million, or 43 cents per share, from $301 million, or 59 cents per share.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast earnings of 45 cents per share.

The power-generating PSE&G Power division said Tuesday that its operating earnings fell because of lower prices for energy and capacity.

In its PSE&G unit, which is the electric and gas utility in New Jersey, operating earnings dipped slightly because of the warmer-than-normal weather during the winter months as transmission revenue improved.

PSE&G Energy Holdings/Enterprise reported its operations earnings fell due to lower earnings on leases.

PSE&G, which is based in Newark, N.J., reaffirmed its outlook for full-year operating earnings of $2.25 to $2.50 per share.

Wall Street foresees earnings of $2.40 per share.

Shares of PSE&G shed 28 cents to $33.72 in morning trading.



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Fresh iPhone Apps for July 31: Weather HD 2 Free, HipGeo update, Jurassic Park Builder

://www.facebook.com/2008/fbml' xml:lang='en' lang='en'> Fresh iPhone Apps for July 31: Weather HD 2 Free, HipGeo update, Jurassic Park Builder - iPhone app article - Phil Hornshaw | Appolicious ™ iPhone and iPad App Directory

Monday, July 30, 2012

East Africa's forests shrink, especially near parks

OSLO (Reuters) - Forests in East Africa have shrunk over the past years, especially around the fringes of parks, complicating efforts to protect wildlife and fight climate change, a study showed on Monday.

The report indicated that forest cover decreased by about 9.3 percent overall from 2001-09 in about 12 nations studied. Losses were biggest in Uganda and Rwanda, while only southern Sudan - which is now the independent country South Sudan - made fractional gains.

'The decrease in forest cover is strongest just outside protected areas,' Rob Marchant of the University of Leeds, who co-ordinated the study in the journal PLOS One by experts in Britain, Denmark and the United States, told Reuters.

'Outside the parks there is very little legislation to prevent people from chopping down trees for timber or charcoal,' he said. The study concluded there had been 'mixed success' for protected areas in East Africa.

Population growth outside parks puts pressure on species of animals and plants. Loss of forests contributes to climate change - trees soak up carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, when they grow and release it when they burn or rot.

The losses of forests were high in bands 10 km (6 miles) from parks and other protected areas, where many people were drawn to live by jobs in forest management or tourism.

Forest area inside national park boundaries increased by 3.2 percent overall, thanks largely to successful expansion in Tanzania. Overall, forests in 26 of 48 national parks got bigger or stayed the same size, while they shrank in the remaining 22.

INVOLVE LOCALS

Among recommendations to improve management was to get local communities more involved in protecting forests, such as in the Mukogodo Forest Reserve in Kenya.

Marchant said the study also showed the difficulties of designing U.N. schemes meant to reward countries for preserving their forests as a way to slow global warming.

Such schemes backfire if forest protection in one area simply means that trees are chopped down elsewhere.

According to U.N. estimates, the forestry sector, worldwide, contributes about 17 percent to global warming from human sources, mainly because of deforestation in developing nations.



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Hot weather outlook again boosts natural gas

NEW YORK (AP) - As the temperature keeps rising, so does the price of natural gas.

Natural gas futures in New York have surged 69 percent since hitting a 10-year low this spring. Power plants are burning more natural gas for electricity as homes and businesses crank up the air conditioning. And natural gas companies are finally cutting back after a production boom that pushed supplies this winter to the highest level on record.

The price jumped another 6.6 percent Monday after forecasters predicted an especially toasty August, with unseasonably warm temperatures throughout the Midwest. Natural gas ended the day at $3.214 per 1,000 cubic feet, a high for the year.

'As long as we see strong cooling demand, prices are going to go higher,' said Gene McGillian, a broker and analyst at Tradition Energy.

Still, natural gas is about 35 percent cheaper than at this time last year. And the recent jump in prices probably won't impact utility bills.

Electricity rates are shielded from price spikes in a couple of ways: Utilities lock in gas prices for years at a time to protect themselves from quick shifts in price. And in many states, rates are set by regulators every year or two.

The rise in natural gas has other impacts, however.

As it gets more expensive, utilities will likely burn more coal, independent petroleum analyst Stephen Schork said. Schork noted that natural gas was cheaper than coal from February to May, making it the preferred fuel source for many utilities.

'This is no longer the case,' Schork said. Coal is now cheaper than natural gas.

Natural gas prices have been climbing as temperatures rise. This year saw the second-warmest April through June period on record in the U.S. Many utilities burn natural gas to generate electricity, and electricity demand jumps during a heat wave as power customers run their air conditioners more often.

Meanwhile, natural gas producers in the U.S. have been shutting down natural gas drilling operations as they focus on more profitable oil wells. The number of natural gas rigs has been declining every month since October, and production has been falling this year.

In other futures trading, U.S. crude prices fell by 35 cents to $89.78 per barrel in New York. Brent crude, which sets the price for imported oil, lost 27 cents to end at $106.20 per barrel in London. Heating oil lost 1.04 cents to end at $2.8791 per gallon while wholesale gasoline added 4.9 cents to finish at $2.9368 per gallon.

Retail gasoline prices were flat over the weekend at $3.486 per gallon, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. A gallon of regular unleaded is about 45 cents cheaper than its peak price in April. It's also 22.4 cents cheaper than it was a year ago.

___

Follow Chris Kahn on Twitter at http://twitter.com/ChrisKahnAP



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Natural gas resumes 3-month surge on hot weather

NEW YORK (AP) - Natural gas has been on a tear since hitting a 10-year low this spring.

The futures contract in New York has surged 67 percent since April thanks to rising demand for natural gas from power plants and a sharp drop in drilling activity. Prices rose as high as $3.192 per 1,000 cubic feet Monday as forecasters predicted the Midwest would see unseasonably warm weather next month.

Still, natural gas is about 35 percent cheaper than it was last year, and the recent jump in prices probably won't impact utility bills.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude prices fell by 18 cents to $89.95 per barrel in New York while Brent crude lost 38 cents to $106.09 per barrel in London. Retail gasoline prices were flat over the weekend at $3.486 per gallon.



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Greener Olympics Mean Cleaner Air

Click here to listen to this podcast

Bejing often suffers choking air. But there's now one more thing proven to dissipate it: an Olympics.

The 2008 summer games impelled those in charge of the Chinese capital to clear the air. Not only did they banish smog and smoke, they also inadvertently cut greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 96,000 metric tons during the games. That's according to a new analysis published in Geophysical Research Letters on July 20th. [Helen M. Worden et al, Satellite-based estimates of reduced CO and CO2 emissions due to traffic restrictions during the 2008 Beijing Olympics]

The key was banning half of all the private cars in the city from driving on any particular day during the event. The finding suggests that individual choices like whether to drive or take public transit to work have major cumulative effects.

London's so-called congestion charge for driving in town likewise cuts traffic and pollution. This year, London is bidding to have the most environmentally friendly Olympics ever.

That includes building new stadiums atop former industrial sites and urging fans to choose public transit, walking or cycling. But the British may not match the Chinese achievement, or even attempt to make the London games carbon neutral. The Olympics that finally achieves zero carbon would really merit a gold, for green.

-David Biello

[The above text is a transcript of this podcast]

Follow Scientific American on Twitter @SciAm and @SciamBlogs. Visit ScientificAmerican.com for the latest in science, health and technology news.
© 2012 ScientificAmerican.com. All rights reserved.




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Sunday, July 29, 2012

N. Korea forecasts new storm damage after deadly floods

North Korea said Sunday it was being lashed by severe thunderstorms that could cause major damage, just days after flooding that killed scores and left tens of thousands homeless.

State media reported strong winds and heavy rains were battering parts of the country, including the capital Pyongyang, with the official news agency predicting that 'most regions will face huge damages'.

The second unusually detailed report on bad weather in two days will add to concerns the North's farmland has been ravaged, which could cause new food shortages in a state that struggles to feed its people at the best of times.

Following a visit to the country, UN agencies estimated last November that three million people would need food aid in 2012.

It also represents a challenge for new leader Kim Jong-Un, struggling to get to grips with running one of the world's most secretive states.

The state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said late Sunday that heavy rains and strong winds were battering the country, addng areas of Pyongyang, and North Pyongan and South Pyongan provinces were particularly hard hit.

'Torrential downpours are continuing even at this hour in some regions... it is expected that most regions will face huge damages due to the heavy downpour, strong wind and thunders,' it said.

The North earlier on Sunday forecast heavy rains in most parts of the country on Sunday and Monday, particularly warning of downpours set to deluge the west coast and the northern province of Jagang.

The warning comes a day after Pyongyang disclosed that a week-long flood earlier this month had left 88 dead, injured 134, and made almost 63,000 people homeless.

More than 30,000 hectares (74,000 acres) of crop fields were washed away or submerged, with roads and factories destroyed, KCNA said.

After decades of deforestation the impoverished North is particularly vulnerable to flooding.

With rugged terrain and outmoded agricultural practices, the communist state faces serious difficulties in feeding its 24 million people. Hundreds of thousands died during a famine in the mid to late 1990s.

The United States reached a deal in February this year to offer the North much-needed food in return for a freeze on nuclear and missile tests.

But the plan was scrapped after Pyongyang's failed rocket launch in April, seen by the US and its allies as an attempted ballistic missile test banned under UN resolutions.



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Scientists find CO2-sucking funnels in Southern Ocean

Scientists said Sunday they had unraveled the mechanism by which Earth-warming carbon is sucked deep into the Southern Ocean to be safely locked away -- a process that may itself be threatened by climate change.

Wind, eddies and currents work together to create carbon-sucking funnels, said the research team from Britain and Australia in a discovery that adds to the toolkit of scientists attempting climate warming predictions.

About a quarter of the carbon dioxide on Earth is stored away in its oceans -- some 40 percent of that in the Southern Ocean encircling Antarctica.

At a depth of about 1,000 metres (3,200 feet), carbon can be locked away for hundreds to thousands of years, yet scientists had never been sure exactly how it gets there after dissolving into surface waters.

They had suspected the wind was the main force at play, pooling up surface water in some areas and forcing it down into the ocean depths.

Using 10 years of data obtained from small, deep-sea robotic probes, the researchers found that in addition to the wind, eddies -- big whirlpool-like phenomena about 100 kilometres (60 miles) in diameter on average, also played a part.

'You add the effect of these eddies and the effect of the wind and the effect of prominent currents in the Southern Ocean, you add these three effects, it makes ... 1,000 km-wide funnels that bring the carbon from the sea surface to the interior,' study author Jean-Baptiste Sallee told AFP.

The team had also used temperature, salinity and pressure data collected from ship-based observations since the 1990s.

'This is a very efficient process to bring carbon from the surface to the interior. We found in the Southern Ocean there are five such funnels,' said Sallee.

The team also found that the eddies counterbalanced a different effect of strong winds -- that of releasing stored carbon by violent mixing of the sea.

'This does seem to be good news, but the thing is what will be the impact of climate change on the eddies? Will they stop, will they intensify? We have no idea,' said Sallee.

A changing climate could theoretically affect the nature and effect of the Southern Ocean eddies by changing ocean currents, intensifying winds or creating stark temperature spikes.

The findings mean that eddies must be taken into account in future climate models, said Sallee. They are not currently.

The study focused on the part of the Southern Ocean south of 35 degree south latitude.

The team could not say whether the same funnelling process would be at play in other seas, but Sallee said the Southern Ocean was 'one of the most energetic places on Earth', and the effect of eddies would likely be larger there than anywhere else.

There is also another carbon capturing process, not covered by this study, of CO2-producing micro organisms that live near the ocean surface sinking to the sea floor and settling there when they die.



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Friday, July 27, 2012

Ecstasy Impairs Memory; Massive Stars Likened to Vampires

Discovered: Tanzania might profit from global warming; massive stars suck their partners dry; it's hard to remember things on ecstasy; researching the benefits of barefoot running.

RELATED: How Obama Lost Climate Change


Ecstasy makes you forget. With rave rampaging across America once again, all you kandi kids might want to take note of new research that links the drug ecstasy with memory impairment. Scientists studied people who took about three ecstasy tablets per month for a year. Their memory skills deteriorated in subsequent lab tests. "It's been very, very difficult to convince people that there's a causative effect of the drug," says Vanderbilt University Medical Center neuroscientist Ronald Cowan. "This adds strong evidence to that." [Science News

RELATED: Five Best Wednesday Columns


Massive stars are selfish partners. Two-thirds of massive stars orbit a partner star, but the relationship is often rocky, an international team of astronomers has discovered. Massive stars "suck material from their companions much like a vampire does," and sometimes they "melt together to become even more massive," according to a press release from Germany's University of Bonn. "The new insight into the lives of massive stars has a direct impact on the understanding of the final stages most massive stars experience," says Professor Norbert Langer. [University of Bonn]

RELATED: March Heat Broke 15,000 Records; Weather Could Have Deadly Effects


Climate change: a blessing in disguise for Tanzania? It's not too often that we get positive news about climate change. According to a study from researchers at Stanford University, the World Bank and Purdue University, the economy of developing African nation Tanzania stands to benefit from global warming. The droughts that will wreak havoc on the United States' agricultural output could be a boon for Tanzania, which stands to benefit from the higher commodity prices of corn, one of their exports. "This study highlights how government policies can influence the impact that we experience from the climate system," says Noah Diffenbaugh, assistant professor at Stanford's School of Earth Sciences. [Science Daily]

RELATED: What Exxon's CEO Proposes We Do About Global Warming: 'We'll Adapt'


Has barefoot running led to fewer injuries, or more? The University of Central Florida unpacks the legacy of Abebe Bikila, the man who earned a gold medal in the 1960 Olympics by being the first modern Olympian to ditch shoes and run barefoot. Many runners have followed his example, believing that barefoot running helps avoid running-related injuries. Carey Rothschild, a UCF instructor and physical therapist, reviewed an extensive body of research into barefoot running and even conducted a survey to determine whether the practice actually does decrease injuries. She was unable to prove barefoot running's purported health benefits. "The bottom line is that when a runner goes from shoes to no shoes, their body may not automatically change its gait," she said. 



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Two dead, over 130,000 without power after fierce storms

ELMIRA, New York (Reuters) - Violent thunderstorms barreled through the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions of the eastern United States late on Thursday, killing two people and cutting power to more than 130,000 homes and businesses in New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The storms spawned at least one tornado, which touched down in Elmira, New York, toppling trees and ripping off rooftops, the National Weather Service said.

Officials in Pennsylvania and New York reported two storm-related deaths.

A woman camping in Genesee, Pennsylvania, near the New York state line, took refuge from the storm in her car. She was killed when a tree fell on the car, said Potter County emergency services director John Hetrick.

New York City police said a 61-year-old man in Brooklyn's Cobble Hill neighborhood was killed when scaffolding at a church collapsed on him as the storm passed through near 8 p.m.

He was identified as Richard Schwartz, a longtime assistant attorney general in New York who was at the forefront of investigations involving such high profile targets as Microsoft and the National Football League.

'It's possible lightning struck the top of the roof, causing some bricks to fall on top of the scaffolding,' said a police spokesman.

The storms forced the cancellation of over 900 flights on Thursday, according to FlightAware, a Texas-based company that tracks the status of flights. The highest number of cancellations was at LaGuardia Airport in New York.

The one reported tornado hit Elmira's east side hardest. In one four-block neighborhood, most homes had trees toppled on them, street signs were bent and tree trunks had debris wrapped around them. Several cars were crushed by downed trees.

One two-story brick building had most of its second story torn off in the storm, and most power remained out for the city's 29,000 residents on Friday morning.

Meteorologists said 70-mile-per-hour (113-kph) winds were reported in parts of Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Oklahoma.

As the storms sent black, menacing clouds across cities and open country, hail ranging from dime- to quarter-sized fell in some areas of Pennsylvania, AccuWeather.com said.

By midday Friday, utilities across the region had made only modest progress in restoring power, with more than 130,000 homes and businesses still without electricity.

Pennsylvania accounted for a majority of those still without power, with more than 85,000 customers in the dark early Friday, according to electric companies serving the region.

Roughly 34,000 people in New York were without power, most of them in the southern-tier region near Elmira, according to NYSEG. About 13,500 customers in eastern Ohio were still offline, according to AEP Ohio.

The storms formed along a cold front stretching from the Ohio Valley into the northeast, bringing the threat of damaging winds, hail and tornadoes, according to the Weather Channel.

(Additional reporting by Kevin Gray and Alex Dobuzinskis; Writing by Dan Burns; Editing by Eric Walsh and Todd Eastham)



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Analysis: Evidence for climate extremes, costs, gets more local

OSLO (Reuters) - Scientists are finding evidence that man-made climate change has raised the risks of individual weather events, such as floods or heatwaves, marking a big step towards pinpointing local costs and ways to adapt to freak conditions.

'We're seeing a great deal of progress in attributing a human fingerprint to the probability of particular events or series of events,' said Christopher Field, co-chairman of a U.N. report due in 2014 about the impacts of climate change.

Experts have long blamed a build-up of greenhouse gas emissions for raising worldwide temperatures and causing desertification, floods, droughts, heatwaves, more powerful storms and rising sea levels.

But until recently they have said that naturally very hot, wet, cold, dry or windy weather might explain any single extreme event, like the current drought in the United States or a rare melt of ice in Greenland in July.

But for some extremes, that is now changing.

A study this month, for instance, showed that greenhouse gas emissions had raised the chances of the severe heatwave in Texas in 2011 and unusual heat in Britain in late 2011. Other studies of extremes are under way.

Growing evidence that the dice are loaded towards ever more severe local weather may make it easier for experts to explain global warming to the public, pin down costs and guide investments in everything from roads to flood defenses.

'One of the ironies of climate change is that we have more papers published on the costs of climate change in 2100 than we have published on the costs today. I think that is ridiculous,' said Myles Allen, head of climate research at Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute.

'We can't (work out current costs) without being able to make the link to extreme weather,' he said. 'And once you've worked out how much it costs that raises the question of who is going to pay.'

Industrialized nations agree they should take the lead in cutting emissions since they have burnt fossil fuels, which release greenhouse gases, since the Industrial Revolution. But they oppose the idea of liability for damage.

Almost 200 nations have agreed to work out a new deal by the end of 2015 to combat climate change, after repeated setbacks. China, the United States and India are now the top national emitters of greenhouse gases.

Field, Professor of Biology and Environmental Earth System Science at the University of Stanford, said that the goal was to carry out studies of extreme weather events almost immediately after they happen, helping expose the risks.

'Everybody who needs to make decisions about the future - things like building codes, infrastructure planning, insurance - can take advantage of the fact that the risks are changing but we have a lot of influence over what those risks are.'

FLOODS

Another report last year indicated that floods 12 years ago in Britain - among the countries most easily studied because of it has long records - were made more likely by warming. And climate shifts also reduced the risks of flooding in 2001.

Previously, the European heatwave of 2003 that killed perhaps 70,000 people was the only extreme where scientists had discerned a human fingerprint. In 2004, they said that global warming had at least doubled the risks of such unusual heat.

The new statistical reviews are difficult because they have to tease out the impact of greenhouse gases from natural variations, such as periodic El Nino warmings of the Pacific, sun-dimming volcanic dust or shifts in the sun's output.

So far, extreme heat is the easiest to link to global warming after a research initiative led by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the British Meteorological Office.

'Heatwaves are easier to attribute than heavy rainfall, and drought is very difficult given evidence for large droughts in the past,' said Gabriele Hegerl of the University of Edinburgh.

Scientists often liken climate change to loading dice to get more sixes, or a baseball player on steroids who hits more home runs. That is now going to the local from the global scale.

Field said climate science would always include doubt since weather is chaotic. It is not as certain as physics, where scientists could this month express 99.999 percent certainty they had detected the Higgs boson elementary particle.

'This new attribution science is showing the power of our understanding, but it also illustrates where the limits are,' he said.

A report by Field's U.N. group last year showed that more weather extremes that can be linked to greenhouse warming, such as the number of high temperature extremes and the fact that the rising fraction of rainfall falls in downpours.

But scientists warn against going too far in blaming climate change for extreme events.

Unprecedented floods in Thailand last year, for instance, that caused $45 billion in damage according to a World Bank estimate, were caused by people hemming in rivers and raising water levels rather than by climate change, a study showed.

'We have to be a bit cautious about blaming it all on climate change,' Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring and attribution at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, said of extremes in 2012.

Taken together, many extremes are a sign of overall change.

'If you look all over the world, we have a great disastrous drought in North America ... you have the same situation in the Mediterranean... If you look at all the extremes together you can say that these are indicators of global warming,' said Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengabe, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

(Additional reporting by Sara Ledwith in London; Editing by Louise Ireland)



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Thursday, July 26, 2012

Storms in Northeast knock out power, ground flights

(Reuters) - Severe thunderstorms unleashed heavy rain and strong winds across parts of the Midwest and Northeast on Thursday, grounding hundreds of flights and leaving tens of thousands of people without power.

The storms spawned a tornado that touched down in Elmira, New York, damaging a mall and a local country club, the National Weather Service said.

There were no immediate reports of injuries. Meteorologists said 70 mile-an-hour winds were reported in parts of Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Oklahoma.

As the storms sent black, menacing clouds rolling across some cities, hail ranging from the size of a dime to a quarter fell in some areas of Pennsylvania, AccuWeather.com said.

More than 51,000 customers were without power in Ohio, said American Electric Power of Ohio. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said in a statement that the storms knocked out power for nearly 93,700 utility customers across the state.

In New Jersey, more than 10,000 customers suffered power outages.

The storms formed along a cold front stretching from the Northeast into the Ohio Valley, threatening damaging winds, hail and tornadoes, according to the Weather Channel.

The storm activity forced the cancellation of over 900 flights on Thursday, according to FlightAware, a Texas-based company that tracks the status of flights. The highest number of cancellations was at LaGuardia Airport in New York.

Flight delays were also reported at airports in Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington D.C., the Federal Aviation Administration said on its website.

A severe thunderstorm watch was issued for portions of Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center said that 'hail (up) to 2 inches in diameter, thunderstorm wind gusts to 80 miles per hour and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.'

Thunderstorms that swept through Westchester County, north of New York City, toppled trees and caused power outages.

Trees fell across the tracks of the Metro North commuter rail system's Harlem Line and brought train traffic to a halt on the line north of Chappaqua, the town that is home to former U.S. President Bill Clinton and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

(Reporting by Kevin Gray, Dan Burns and Alex Dobuzinskis; Editing by Stacey Joyce and Anthony Boadle)



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Storms in U.S. Northeast knock out power, ground flights

(Reuters) - Severe thunderstorms unleashed heavy rain and strong winds across parts of the Midwest and Northeast on Thursday, grounding hundreds of flights and leaving tens of thousands of people without power.

The storms spawned a tornado that touched down in Elmira, New York, damaging a mall and a local country club, the National Weather Service said.

There were no immediate reports of injuries. Forecasters warned of potentially destructive winds gusts in some areas of up to 70 miles per hour.

As the storms sent black, menacing clouds rolling across some cities, hail ranging from the size of a dime to a quarter fell in parts of Pennsylvania, said AccuWeather.com.

More than 51,000 customers were without power in Ohio, said American Electric Power of Ohio. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said in a statement that the storms knocked out power for nearly 93,700 utility customers across the state.

The storms formed along a cold front stretching from the Northeast into the Ohio Valley and threatened damaging winds, hail and tornadoes, according to the Weather Channel.

There were over 900 flight cancellations on Thursday, according to FlightAware, a Texas-based company that tracks flights. The highest number of cancellations was at LaGuardia Airport in New York.

Flight delays were also reported at airports in Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington D.C., the Federal Aviation Administration said on its website.

A severe thunderstorm watch was issued for portions of Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center warned that 'hail (up) to 2 inches in diameter, thunderstorm wind gusts to 80 miles per hour and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.'

Thunderstorms that swept through Westchester County, north of New York City, toppled trees and caused power outages.

Trees fell across the tracks of the Metro North commuter rail system's Harlem Line and brought train traffic to a halt on the line north of Chappaqua, the town that is home to former U.S. President Bill Clinton and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

(Reporting by Kevin Gray, Dan Burns and Alex Dobuzinskis; Editing by Stacey Joyce and Anthony Boadle)



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Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Climate Change Deniers in the House of Representatives Targeted for Defeat

The current House of Representatives has been called one of the most environmentally hostile in history. Part of the problem, according to leading environmental groups is that many members simply refuse to admit, for personal or political reasons, that humans are causing climate change.

To try and shake things up this after the elections, the League of Conservation Voters (LCV)  a nonprofit environmental advocacy group is pouring $1.5 million into a campaign to defeat five of the most outspoken climate deniers currently in the House. 

The campaign, called "Defeat the Flat Earth Five" will focus on running TV, mail and phone initiatives to spread the message that the members are ignoring science and out of touch with what most Americans believe.

RELATED: How Green are Romney's Would-Be V.P. Picks?

"The Flat Earth Five is our first program ever to go after members of Congress specifically because they are climate deniers," said Jeff Gohringer, LCV's National Press Secretary. "We are focusing on races in swing districts where we know our money can make a difference."

First to receive the dubious honor of induction into the Flat Earth Five: GOP Reps. Ann Marie Buerkle of New York and and Dan Benishek of Michigan.

Buerkle has said that "the jury is still out on climate change" while Benishek has referred to it as "unproven science."

"These members are representative of the all-too-common mindset of climate denial in the House," Gohringer said. "It was actually quite difficult to narrow it down to just five - this is the worst House of Representatives ever when it comes to environmental issues."

The other three members to be targeted by the campaign will be revealed in upcoming weeks.

Gohringer said that calling the members the "Flat Earth Five" was emblematic of their point of view and their denial of science.



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Zoloft Treats Fungal Infections Too; Blind Mice See the Light

Discovered: Weird weather informs beliefs about global warming; sight brought to blind mice; encroachment on tropical reserves; the popular anti-depressive Zoloft can prevent fungal infections. 

RELATED: Starbucks Worried Climate Change Means No More Coffee


Tropical reserves aren't so pristine. Setting aside certain swaths of land as untouchable may be one of our nobler impulses as inhabitants of the Earth. But a new look at tropical reserves reveals that what we do just beyond reserve borders still endangers these delicate ecosystems. The logging, deforestation and fire activity happening at reserve peripheries can cause a decline in the health of off-limits areas. "These parks are like imperfect mirrors," says research leader William Laurance, an Australian ecologist. "They're partially reflecting what's going on around them." Laurance and nearly 200 other coauthors culled their findings from a survey of 60 reserves across 36 nations. [Science News]

RELATED: Getting the Arab Spring Greener; Being Burned by a Heat Wave


Beliefs about global warming change like the weather. Don't you love it when people interpret cold summertime weather as proof that global warming isn't real? Researchers at NYU and Temple University conducted a study about such misperceptions, and they conclude that local weather trends do indeed affect beliefs about global warming. People experiencing warmer than average weather are more likely to give credence to global warming. The researchers write that climate change is "a complex issue with which Americans have little direct experience. As they try to make sense of this difficult issue, many people use fluctuations in local temperature to reassess their beliefs about the existence of global warming." [NYU]

RELATED: Good News: The Economy Is Up, Bad News: So Are Carbon Emissions


Bringing sight to blind mice. Scientists have discovered a way of temporarily restoring sight to blind mice. Using a chemical known as AAQ, they were able to make normally unreceptive rods and cones in mouse retinas sensitive to light. "This is a major advance in the field of vision restoration," said Dr. Russell Van Gelder, chair of the Department of Ophthalmology at the University of Washington, Seattle. The researchers hope their findings will lead to sight-restoring treatments for humans with common forms of inherited and degenerative, age-related blindness. [UC Berkeley]

RELATED: Another Moon for Pluto; Cows Freak Out About Global Warming


A cure-all for depression and fungal meningitis. If you're taking Zoloft, here's some good news: it's less likely you'll contract a deadly fungal infection! Who wouldn't be a little happier knowing that? Biologists at Texas A&M University have discovered that the the widely prescribed antidepressant inhibits the growth of fungal meningitis. More than half a million people die every year from such infections, according to the CDC. "The point here is that if there is a drug that already exists, is known to be well-tolerated, and has alternative uses, that's a good thing," says Prof. Matthew S. Sachs. "The billion dollars it would take to bring a drug to the market—that's already done." [Texas A&M University]



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Cavers find mass fossil deposit Down Under

Australian scientists said Wednesday cavers had stumbled upon a vast network of tunnels containing fossils that could offer key insights into species' adaptation to climate change.

The limestone caves in Australia's far north contained what University of Queensland paleontologist Gilbert Price described as a 'fossil goldmine' of species ranging from minute rodents and frogs to giant kangaroos.

Once part of an ancient rainforest, the remote site now lies in arid grassland and Price said the fossilised remains could hold key clues about how the creatures had adapted to climate change and evolved to their current forms.

The caves' oldest specimens are estimated to be 500,000 years old. Price said they lived in a period of major aridification of central Australia and retreat of the rainforest that triggered a 'formal extinction event'.

'What we're trying to do up here is really look at the fossils and look at the animals and see how they responded to those prehistoric climatic changes, and that's something that's really quite relevant to today,' Price told AFP.

He said the caves could serve as an important benchmark to contrast modern relatives against, to understand how they had evolved.

'We've got the question of what the effect of modern climate change is going to be on the organisms that we have around us, and the reality is we just don't know because we don't have any significant period of ecological sampling of the modern faunas,' said Price.

'Just having an understanding of how they responded in the past is incredible, it's something that we can use and plug into models for conservation going into the future.'

The smaller creatures were thought to have been carried into the cave by a predator such as an owl, while the larger ones, including a 2.2-metre (7.2-feet), 180-kilogram (396 pounds) mega kangaroo, probably tumbled into it through a hole.

It is slow work, with access to the caves difficult and time-consuming. Price said it would take a year to work through the 120 kilograms of fossil-rich sediment they had managed to carry out of the site on foot so far.

Local cavers had uncovered more tunnels in the past week alone, each producing 'something of significance' and Price said there was 'potentially many lifetimes worth of work in the area'.



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Hot & Windy Weather For North Texas

='en' xmlns:fb='http://www.facebook.com/2008/fbml' xmlns:addthis='http://www.addthis.com/help/api-spec' > Garry Seith's 6:30 AM Weather Report « CBS Dallas / Fort Worth

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Kenya H1 tea output down 11 pct, earnings to remain

NAIROBI (Reuters) - Kenya's tea output fell 11.4 percent in the first half of the year due to extreme weather conditions, the tea board said on Wednesday, with full-year production projected to decline 5 percent compared to 2011.

The tea board said 2012 output was expected to fall to 360 million kg, down from 377 million kg recorded in 2011, mainly due to lower production in the first half of the year.

But with average tea prices increasing to around $3 per kg at auctions, up from $2.97 in the first half of 2011, the loss of earnings is expected to be minimal.

'We project that the level of earnings will stay the same as we had last year,' Sicily Kariuki, managing director of the Tea Board of Kenya, told Reuters.

Tea exports from the east African country, the world's leading black tea exporter, fell to 207.77 million kg from 211.7 million kg in the six months to the end of June.

Overall tea output fell to 158.17 million kg for the first half of the year, down from 178.4 million kg recorded during the same period in 2011.

'We experienced drought at the beginning of the year and now we've seen some harsh conditions in terms of cold and very low temperatures in the tea growing areas,' Kariuki said.

Brazil, Togo and Cameroon started importing Kenyan tea this year, the tea board said, while exports to emerging market countries like United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Djibouti and Indonesia also increased.

Egypt remains the biggest buyer for Kenyan tea, accounting for 21 percent of the east African country's tea exports in the first half of 2012.



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Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Midwest cities see increase in dangerously hot weather: report

(Reuters) - Dangerously hot summer days have become more common across the U.S. Midwest in the last 60 years, and the region will face more potentially deadly weather as the climate warms, according to a report issued by the Union of Concerned Scientists on Wednesday.

The report looked at weather trends in five major urban areas - Chicago, Cincinnati, Detroit, Minneapolis and St. Louis - along with weather in nearby smaller cities such as Peoria, Illinois, and Toledo, Ohio. The report focused on the Midwest because of its numerous major population centers, and because it is projected to face more heat waves with climate change.

The report found that the number of hot, humid days has increased, on average, across the Midwest since the 1940s and 1950s, while hot, dry days have become hotter.

Finding relief from the heat during the summer has become more difficult, as all the cities studied now have fewer cool, dry days in the summer, and nighttime temperatures during hot periods have risen.

'Nighttime is typically when people get relief, especially those who don't have air conditioning,' said Steve Frenkel, Union of Concerned Scientists' Midwest office director. 'The risks of heat-related illness and death increase with high nighttime temperatures.'

The report found that heat waves lasting three days or longer have become more common. St. Louis, for example, has more than doubled its number of three-day heat waves since the 1940s. Studies have linked at least three consecutive days of high temperature and humidity to more deaths.

Extreme heat and humidity can be lethal. In Chicago, more than 700 deaths were attributed to a heat wave in July 1995. More recently, extreme heat in Russia in 2010 led to an estimated 55,000 deaths.

With more extreme summertime heat, annual deaths in Chicago are projected to increase from 143 from 2020-2029 to 300 between 2090-2099, according to the report.

The report warned that conditions could get much worse if emissions of gases believed to cause global warming continue at their current pace, or at a higher pace.

Chicago, for example, could see more than 70 days with temperatures of 90 Fahrenheit (32 Celsius) each year toward the end of the century, on average, if emissions continue at the current pace. Under a higher-emissions scenario, dangerously hot days over 100 F (38 C) in Chicago could increase dramatically, producing a month of such days, the report said.

Hot, humid temperatures are tougher on the elderly, whose percentage in the population is increasing. About 20 percent of U.S. residents are projected to be over age 65 by 2030, up from about 13 percent now, according to the report.

'We must take preventative measures to protect public health during extreme heat events, but the only way to ensure these heat waves are not a threat in the future is by reducing the harmful emissions that are driving them in the first place,' said Frenkel.

Though the study focused on weather in the last six decades through 2011, the summer of 2012 has so far reflected a continued warming trend.

June temperatures contributed to a record-warm first half of the year and the warmest 12-month period the nation has experienced since recordkeeping began in 1895, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

In the Midwest, the U.S. corn yield is seen at a 10-year low due to an expanding drought.

(Additional reporting by Sam Nelson; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)



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Southern French worms wriggle as far north as Ireland

A community of French earthworms has been discovered stealthily colonising a farm in Ireland, possibly aided by global warming to thrive so far north of their natural habitat, a study said.

No clash seems to be looming as the French worms prefer to eat a different part of the soil as their Irish cousins, according to a report Wednesday in the Royal Society Journal Biology Letters.

But their picky palate may hold another danger -- possibly unleashing Earth-warming carbon dioxide left hitherto undisturbed by the native worms.

Scientists studying earthworms on a farm in Dublin last year, discovered 'abundant populations' of a species endemic to France's Aquitaine region more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) to the south.

Some also live naturally in northern Spain, Sardinia and parts of northern Africa.

These are the first earthworms from southern Europe ever reported to have settled in previously glaciated areas to the north.

'The surprising aspects are that we found worms doing so well far away from their native range and that they have become established at all here in spite of the different climate and the fact that we already have lots of earthworm species,' study co-author Olaf Schmidt of University College Dublin told AFP.

'It is tempting to speculate that such a southern species can only survive farther north since the climate is changing,' he said, stressing further research was needed to confirm this.

It was not known exactly how the worms travelled to Ireland -- they were probably hidden in the roots a batch of plants delivered across the channel.

On their own, earthworms can spread by about 10 metres a year, said Schmidt, and this colony was believed to have been on the farm for several years.

The French worms were found in six different areas of the farm, several hundred meters apart, feeding on different parts of the soil than the local residents.

'If the newcomers expand their range and population sizes, they could assimilate and hence liberate carbon sources in soils that would stay locked up ... when only native species are present,' Schmidt said.

The worms ingest the carbon as organic matter, and then eject it as Earth-warming CO2.

'However, it could also be that this new species makes a positive contribution to soil structure maintenance, nutrient cycling and so on,' said Schmidt. 'We need more research to find out.'



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Firefighters battling Neb. fires face hot weather

SPARKS, Neb. (AP) - The firefighters battling wildfires in north-central Nebraska will again face temperatures above 100 degrees on Tuesday.

The hot temperatures and strong winds will make it difficult for the more than 300 firefighters to contain the fire in the Niobrara River valley.

The National Weather Service predicts temperatures will hit a high of 107 degrees on Tuesday in Valentine, which is about 20 miles west of the main wildfire.

A cold front is expected to move across the state Wednesday and provide some relief from high temperatures over 100 degrees, but the highs Wednesday will still be in the mid 90s.

The front may also bring some rain, but the National Weather Service says major storms aren't likely near the fire. Any storms could also bring lightning and spark new fires.



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Hot, dry weather affecting ND crops, pastures

FARGO, N.D. (AP) - Hot, dry weather in North Dakota is hurting crops and grazing land in North Dakota.

The Agriculture Department says in its weekly crop and weather report that most crop conditions have declined over the week. But the heat also has accelerated the maturity of crops, and the harvest of small grains is ahead of the average pace.

The report says about one-third of the pasture and range land in North Dakota is in poor or very poor condition, and 39 percent of the hay crop is in those categories. Stockwater supplies are 40 percent short or very short.



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Monday, July 23, 2012

Science Says: Climate Change Could Give You Diarrhea

Pervasive jellyfish and increasingly acidic waters are two anticipated effects of climate change on the world's oceans. Research published yesterday in Nature Climate Change unveiled yet another threat: waterborne bacteria that can cause serious stomach trouble.   

They found that the number of vibrio infections rises with peaks in sea surface temperature. In other words: the warmer the ocean, the more people with food poisoning.  

A team of international experts found that manmade climate change is triggering temperature rises in the Baltic Sea, and consequently increasing the rates of Vibrio outbreaks in Northern Europe.  

Vibrio is a group of bacteria found in warm marine environments. It can cause a range of infections, from gastroenteritis-like symptoms (watery diarrhea, abdominal cramping, nausea, fever, and chills) to cholera, which can be life-threatening if not treated promptly.

MORE: Climate Change Is Screwing With Your Commute



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Va. seeking storm assistance from FEMA

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) - Virginia is seeking federal disaster assistance for the estimated $27.5 million spent by the state and local governments to respond to late June wind and thunderstorms that left 15 dead and 1.3 million utility customers without power.

Gov. Bob McDonnell said the June 29-July 1 storms, which included hail and fierce winds known in meteorological terms as a derecho, "required extraordinary response and recovery efforts at the local and state levels." Forty-seven localities declared emergencies.

"Our first responders, state agencies and private partners worked around the clock for an extended period of time during the storm and in its aftermath to keep our citizens safe and restore services," McDonnell said Monday in a statement.

The estimated cost of the storms to state and local governments does not include damage to private property, the state Department of Emergency Management said.

McDonnell said he is requesting the assistance through the Federal Emergency Management Agency. State emergency management officials received the post-storm assessments from local governments and determined that Virginia should meet all the requirements for federal public assistance, he said.

Some costs that are eligible for reimbursement include the activation of emergency crews to respond to the storm, the opening of shelters, property repairs and the removal of debris.

The announcement that Virginia was seeking federal assistance from the storms also increased the previous number of deaths linked to the storm by two. One death involved a person who was found July 15 near live electrical wires in Arlington, while the other occurred July 18 in Franklin County and was caused by felled trees.



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Heat, humidity building in Kentucky

PADUCAH, Ky. (AP) - Heat and humidity are again building in Kentucky and the National Weather Service has issued an excessive heat warning for western counties in the commonwealth.

The warning is from 10 a.m. Monday through 7 p.m. Thursday. The time span and scope of the warning could be expanded later.

The NWS office in Paducah said heat indexes are expected to reach about 105 degrees. That's the combined effect of heat and humidity. There won't be much cooling at night, with minimum indexes forecast in the mid-70s.

Forecasters caution that the effect on people and animals is cumulative and the warning was issued partly because of sustained hot weather in the region.

The warned area includes western Kentucky and extends as far east as Owensboro, Madisonville and Hopkinsville.



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